Tag: Ford

Preparing For the Return of Dealer Distress

Over the last five years, auto and equipment dealers experienced a period of low inventory levels with high margins on the limited inventory they had for sale and lease. Used automotive and equipment wholesale and retail prices surged. At the same time, merger and acquisition activity drove dealer valuations to record highs especially in the automotive segment.

Dealer merger and acquisition activity has started to cool even though valuations and activity remain elevated above pre-pandemic levels1. New automotive inventory levels have risen during 2024 to the point that Ford’s CFO, John Lawler, expressed worry regarding rising new car inventory levels in June2. Used automotive and equipment wholesale prices have declined from their pandemic era highs as well.

Record profits, low inventory levels, and strong merger and acquisition activity led to low delinquency and default levels in the dealer lending space, but current trends indicate those days may be coming to an end. For floor plan lenders, they should be thinking about dealer distress happening again. While times are still good, there are some steps lenders can take to prepare for distress down the road.

Review Your Documents and Security Interests

It is always easier to fix documentation and security interest deficiencies when times are good. Lenders should be checking to make sure their loan documents are correct and most importantly, their security interest position reflects their expectations. One area of particular concern is making sure no other parties have filed security interests against the dealer including merchant cash advance, factoring and other “short term” funding sources that might not show up as debt on financial statements. Even other lenders providing longer term debt financing secured by other assets like real estate may be taking a security interest in your inventory as well.

Insurance

As part of your documentation review, you should verify the dealer’s insurance meets the requirements of your loan documents, lists your interest properly, and is adequate for the dealer’s exposure. Insurance coverage tied to inventory levels can become insufficient if inventory levels rise faster than the coverage limits increase. Also ensuring the insurance covers all collateral locations is a requirement that might slip through the cracks especially if collateral locations change frequently.

Where is Your Collateral?

One benefit of low inventory levels was that dealers stopped storing inventory at satellite lots. The practice of old is starting to return as inventory levels build. Lenders want to make sure they know of these locations (they should if they are on top of the audits) and obtain landlord waivers if necessary to access the inventory upon a default.

Keeping Up on Audits

Anyone who knows the floor plan business knows the importance of audits. Low inventory levels and well performing dealers made audits easy. With increasing inventory levels, audit complexity is returning to pre-pandemic norms. Audit issues are often one of the first signs of dealer distress. A prominent example of a dealer issue recently being unearthed through audits involves a boat dealer who allegedly sold boats, but stored them for the customers and alleged the boats were still for sale3.

Financial Reporting and Covenants

Financial reporting deficiencies and financial covenant violations are also warning signs of potential distress on the horizon. Dealers rarely go bad overnight. Financial reporting and covenants going downhill are an obvious warning sign.

Taxes

Not just limited to dealers, but tax delinquencies are always a big red flag. Confirming the payment of taxes and the existence of no tax liens should be part of reviewing any dealer relationship especially one showing other signs of distress.

Used Inventory Levels and Advance Rates

During the pandemic when used vehicle and equipment prices shot through the roof, lenders became permissive of advancing beyond their standard advance rates. As used inventory values decline for vehicles4 and agricultural equipment5, dealers can be underwater on used inventory.

Manufacturer Specific Issues

Not all dealers are equal and the same is true for manufacturers. Monthly inventory level data from Cox Automotive6 shows inventory levels being substantially higher among some vehicle brands compared to others. Keeping an eye on your dealer and the average inventory levels of the brands they carry should be on your radar.

Explaining What You Do

As someone who spent a decade as lead counsel at two different financial institutions being lead counsel for floor plan businesses, I spent a lot of time explaining to others outside the floor plan businesses the nuances of floor plan lending. If things start going downhill with a dealer, be prepared for the inevitable basic questions from those not used to the dealer business.

Conclusion – Hope for the Best, Prepare For The Worst

One of the best credit people I ever worked with described a dealer failure as like a war. When a dealer failure occurs, most likely through a selling inventory out of trust, you don’t have time to learn what to do. You got to know what to do. You must have someone ready to take command and quarterback the response. You got to know who will help you accomplish your ends. If you don’t act quickly, your inventory will be gone and your losses can be in the millions within days.

1 “Dealership Buy-Sell Activity and Blue Sky Values are declining, but are elevated well above pre-pandemic levels”, The Haig Report, August 29, 2024 (2024-Q2-Haig-Report-Press-Release-FINAL.pdf (haigpartners.com))
2 “Ford CFO says growing dealer inventory ‘worries me’”, Breana Noble, The Detroit News, June 11, 2024 (Ford CFO John Lawler says growing dealer inventory ‘worries me’ (detroitnews.com))
3 “Lender Alleges Dealer Diverted Millions in Sales Proceeds”, Kim Kavin, Soundings Trade Only, April 16, 2024 (https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/manufacturers/lender-alleges-dealer-diverted-millions-in-sales-proceeds)
4 “Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decrease in First Half of September”, Cox Automotive, September 17, 2024 (Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decrease in First Half of September – Cox Automotive Inc. (coxautoinc.com))
5 “Lower Used Equipment Prices Are Another Sign of the Challenges in the Ag Sector”, Jim Wiesenmeyer, Farm Journal, August 14, 2024 (Lower Used Equipment Prices Are Another Sign of the Challenges in the Ag Sector | AgWeb).
6 “New-Vehicle Inventory Stabilizes as Sales Incentives Increase and Model Year 2025 Vehicles Arrive”, Cox Automotive, September 19, 2024 (New-Vehicle Inventory Stabilizes as Sales Incentives Increase and Model Year 2025 Vehicles Arrive – Cox Automotive Inc. (coxautoinc.com))

Copyright © 2024 Womble Bond Dickinson (US) LLP All Rights Reserved.
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Washington’s Focus on the Electric Vehicle Supply Chain in 2023

If a picture is worth a thousand words, the “photo-op” of the president test driving Ford’s new electric F-150 in May of 2021 was the burning image that foretold the US policy direction for the electric mobility industry.

In 2022, the president and US Congress solidified their support of the industry by passing sweeping legislation aimed at funding and incentivizing US electric mobility manufacturing for the next decade and beyond.

Looking ahead to 2023, the Administration will be writing the rules to implement that support. This will take the form of rulemaking for key statutes such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the CHIPS Act, and the more recent Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). On the non-tariff front, Congress passed, and the president signed, the 2021 Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act.

Background

  • The IIJA authorized $18.6 billion to fund new and existing electric vehicle (EV)-related programs, including a nationwide network of 500,000 EV charging stations and monies for publicly accessible alternative fuel infrastructure. Also, the law injected $10.9 billion in funding for transitioning school buses, transit buses, and passenger ferries to low- and/or zero-emissions alternatives.
  • The CHIPS Act allocated $11 billion in support of advanced semiconductor manufacturing research and set up a $2 billion fund to support technology transfers from laboratory to applications.
  • The IRA, perhaps the most significant development from Washington, DC, injected billions of dollars in tax credits and other incentives to spur US domestic manufacturing of electric vehicles.
  • In December 2022, news came that a United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) Dispute Settlement Panel had completed its findings on a complaint by Mexico and supported by Canada that the United States has been misinterpreting the product origin calculations for “core parts” for USMCA vehicle qualification. In January of 2023, that ruling was made public. See Long Awaited USMCA Panel Decision on Automotive “Core Parts” – What Happened and What’s Next.
  • In June 2022, the Administration published its “Strategy to Prevent the Importation of Goods Mined, Produced, or Manufacture with Forced Labor.” Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has launched a vigorous and highly intrusive enforcement strategy for a number of key sectors, including the automotive industry.

What to Know

Based on the legislative developments from the last year, the EV industry should expect:

  • Import Enforcement. If 2022 was the year of federal infusion of funding and policy development, 2023 will be the year of import enforcement and accountability. Supply chains will be scrutinized, and compliance will have to be demonstrated. In addition, claims of tariff preferences under US trade agreements will be closely monitored to guard against fraudulent product descriptions or county of origin. In terms of US forced labor legislation, a January 2023 article in a well-read trade media reported on a meeting with US Trade Representative Katherine Tai at which the Ambassador “suggested that auto or auto parts imported from China could be in CBP crosshairs.” (International Trade Today, January 6, 2023 Vol 39, No 4).
  • Accountability. With the massive funding from Congress and the White House, federal agencies will be scrutinizing how monies have been spent, particularly whether they have been spent to meet the goals to incentive US domestic production. Global supply chains will come under the microscope. A December 2022 Treasury Department publication can be read here.
  • Corporate Readiness. Companies that engage in the global marketplace dread the unknown. There is no crystal ball. But what corporate executives can do to mitigate the risk of potentially bad news on the trade front is to monitor developments, conduct self-assessments, and, where possible, build in flexibilities.
  • Know Your Customer. Know Your Suppliers. Know Your Suppliers’ Suppliers. A common thread weaving throughout these developments on the trade front is Washington’s not so subtle objective of determining the essential source of imported products. That effort will shift the onus onto the private sector, with companies having to provide far more transparency into their product’s life span.

For product development and marketing executives in the electric mobility sector, 2023 is potentially a very good news story. But for general counsels and corporate compliance and procurement officers, the uncertainties of regulatory change will require extra attention. In the interim, company officials are taking a fresh look at the current legal and regulatory exposures of their supply chains to be best prepared for the trade policy changes ahead. The adage “when in uncertain times, start with what you know” is particularly relevant today.

To that end, the USMCA can play a critical “bridge” for many companies with strategic business interests in the US market.

Article By Birgit Matthiesen, David R. Hamill, Antonio J. Rivera, and James Kim of ArentFox Schiff LLP

For more utilities and transportation legal news, click here to visit the National Law Review.

© 2023 ArentFox Schiff LLP

Vehicle Sales Continue Their Depression

Anyone want to buy a vehicle? A better question might be: anyone got a vehicle for sale? Whether because of supply side issues, demand side issues, other issues, or all of the above, the fact remains that the first quarter of 2022 was not a good quarter for vehicle sales.  Just ask the manufactures who saw double digit drops in new light-vehicle sales: 23% for Honda; 20% for GM; 17% for Ford; 15% for Toyota; and 14% for Stellantis. While the numbers sound like doom and gloom, the manufacturers were not dour. Honda was quite positive about its numbers, noting that demand was strong and they just could not make enough vehicles to sell more, “we’re riding a bit of a roller coaster due to fluctuating parts supply issues, but strong March sales for Honda and Acura speak to the fact that demand remains strong and our retail deliveries are based primarily on what we can supply to our dealers.”

Some other interesting tidbits from sales data:

As a result, LMC Automotive and Cox Automotive each reduced their full-year U.S. light-vehicle sales forecast to 15.3 million units, citing a slower pace to recovery from market constraints. LMC referred to inventory levels as “critically low.”  Cox led its report by noting that not only are inventories low, but prices are high and sales incentives have vanished (note – this is how that entire supply/demand thing works).  Cox laid it all at the feet of supply: “Auto sales will basically be stuck at the current level until more supply arrives.”

Globally, the pandemic is not over. This continues to have the potential to drastically impact global vehicle volumes, especially in China. Global vehicle production could lose up to 1.5 million units this year if China’s COVID-Zero policy is maintained, according to estimates from Fitch Solutions quoted in Bloomberg. Most recently, phased lockdowns in Shanghai in response to COVID-19 outbreaks disrupted production for several major automakers and suppliers.

Add to that, the ongoing microchip shortage (for which no end appears in sight) is causing production downtime at various plants: Jeep production at Stellantis’ Mack Assembly plant in Detroit and Belvidere Assembly plant in Illinois; Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and GMC Sierra 1500 production at GM’s Fort Wayne Assembly plant; and Mustang production at Ford’s Flat Rock Assembly plant. Let’s not forget the war in Ukraine, leading to German automakers potentially losing up to 150,000 units of production in March due to supply disruptions.

Oddly, the industry feels both healthy (revenue, profits, margins, etc.) and stressed with an unceratin future (see above) all at the same time.  Also oddly, but strangely not so oddly, nothing about this situation feels new.  Is this the new normal?

Article By Jeffrey A. Soble of Foley & Lardner LLP

For more transportation legal news, click here to visit the National Law Review.

© 2022 Foley & Lardner LLP

Ford UAW Workers Defy Logic Of Ricky Bobby With New Tentative Agreement

If you ain’t first, you’re last. Not so, say the Ford UAW workers whose bargaining committee recently reached a new tentative agreement with Ford. While Ford was the last to reach a tentative agreement with the UAW, if the membership ratifies the tentative agreement, the UAW workers at Ford stand to receive a better overall deal than their counterparts at Fiat Chrysler and GM. Highlights of the tentative agreement with Ford include:

  • Investment of $9 billion in the U.S. by Ford over the life of the agreement;

  • $8,500 ratification bonus along with a $1,500 profit-sharing prepayment;

  • Entry level employees can progress to the Tier 1 wage rates within 8 years; and

  • $70,000 retirement incentive for eligible employees.

As with the ratification process for Fiat Chrysler and GM, the UAW membership at Ford will now be asked to vote in the coming days to approve the tentative agreement. The fact that the Ford tentative agreement is already better than the tentative agreements with Fiat Chrysler and GM should aid in the ratification process. Additionally, the UAW has already seen firsthand what works and what does not when it comes to seeking ratification of a tentative agreement in the current automotive climate.

While the bargaining process at Ford seems to be headed in the right direction, GM is still waiting to announce the ratification of its tentative agreement with the UAW. Despite a majority of the hourly production workers supporting the tentative agreement, a majority of the skilled-trades workers voted “no.” Based on the UAW’s constitution, the UAW is required to meet with the skilled-trades members to hear their complaints. Those meetings began this week. We will have to wait and see if the UAW attempts to go back to the bargaining table based on the issues raised by the skilled-trades workers.

Article By Michael W. Groebe of Foley & Lardner LLP

© 2015 Foley & Lardner LLP