As climate change is integrated more and more into the planning of corporate opportunities and risks, the Fourth National Climate Assessment released last week may be a valuable resource to assess how climate change may impact your business strategy on the horizon.
The assessment, which outlines potential region-by-region impacts from climate change, can be used as a tool to assist companies in understanding the range of possible climate impact. Drafted by experts within the federal government and led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the report provides a summary of the science and modeling used to predict changes in the United States’ climate over the next century, including providing certain economic impact assessments and estimates.
Four modeled scenarios with varying ranges of temperature increases were used in the assessment and impacts were qualified by confidence ranges and likelihood of the suggested impacts. The report discusses population changes, economic changes, and geographic changes that may result from climate change.
Containing a massive amount of both elementary and highly sophisticated information and model results, the assessment may prove to be extremely useful to both public and private companies to plan business growth and opportunities and to identify risks to current business models. The data may be specific enough to identify potential mitigation and adaptation actions for specific facilities to consider implementing.
Four Highlighted Themes
The following themes are indicative of those found throughout the assessment.
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“Climate change creates new risks and exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in communities across the United States, presenting growing challenges to human health and safety, quality of life, and the rate of economic growth.” Summary Finding No. 1.
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“Without substantial and sustained global mitigation and regional adaptation efforts, climate change is expected to cause growing losses to American infrastructure and property and impede the rate of economic growth over this century.” Summary Finding No. 2.
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“Climate change affects the natural, built, and social systems we rely on individually and through their connection to one another. These interconnected systems are increasingly vulnerable to cascading impacts that are often difficult to predict, threatening essential services within and beyond the Nation’s borders.” Summary Finding No. 3.
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“Impacts from climate change on extreme weather and climate-related events, air quality, and the transmission of disease through insects and pests, food, and water increasingly threaten the health and well-being of the American people, particularly populations that are already vulnerable.” Summary Finding No. 6.
Midwest Adaptation and Mitigation
According to the report, while climate change might be easier to highlight on the coasts, the Midwest may also experience costs related to increased heat and precipitation events. The report indicates that the Midwest may experience a significant increase in the number of 100 degree days, with Chicago experiencing as many at 60 days per year by the end of this century. This extreme heat may increase mortality, affect transportation, or affect the ability of workers in outdoor jobs or spaces without temperature controls. With near-term planning and adaptation, however, the report notes that many of these impacts can be minimized.
The report highlights that higher heat and precipitation may affect farming and yields, but that adaptation and mitigation can help. For example, the assessment notes that adding buffer zones at agricultural farm fields in the Midwest can minimize damage and soil loss caused by extreme precipitation events.
Other actionable insights from the report directed to the Midwest include:
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Promoting biodiversity can minimize the impacts of an increasing insect population and diseases that strike a particular species of plants or humans.
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Planned development growth can decrease habitat and biodiversity loss as well as control storm-related damage.
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Planned development and agricultural land use can impede the further degradation of the Great Lakes, which is experiencing higher temperatures, lower amounts of winter ice and earlier temperature stratification. These temperature changes may also impact manufacturing facilities that use water from the Great Lakes.
Overall, the assessment recommends adoption of mitigation and adaptation plans in the near future to avoid the most deleterious effects of climate change.
© 2018 Schiff Hardin LLP
