In a statement issued with the report, FRB Vice Chair Lael Brainard stated that over the past six months, “household and business indebtedness has remained generally stable, and on aggregate households and businesses have maintained the ability to cover debt servicing, despite rising interest rates.” She also noted that “[t]oday’s environment of rapid synchronous global monetary policy tightening, elevated inflation, and high uncertainty associated with the pandemic and the war raises the risk that a shock could lead to the amplification of vulnerabilities, for instance due to strained liquidity in core financial markets or hidden leverage.”
The Report notes that the FRB’s monitoring framework “distinguishes between shocks to, and vulnerabilities of, the financial system,” and “focuses primarily on assessing vulnerabilities, with an emphasis on four broad categories and how those categories might interact to amplify stress in the financial system.” The four categories of vulnerabilities are (1) valuation pressures, (2) borrowing by businesses and households, (3) leverage within the financial sector, and (4) funding risks. The overview of the Report notes that since the May report was released, “the economic outlook has weakened and uncertainty about the outlook has remained elevated, noting that “[i]nflation remains unacceptably high in the United States and is also elevated in many other countries.”
Related to the funding risk vulnerability (and perhaps showing some prescience to our lead story on FTX this week), the Report noted that stable coins remained vulnerable to runs. The Report included a highlighted discussion of digital assets and financial stability noting trouble and volatility in the crypto market in the spring of this year. That discussion noted that the “[t]he turmoil in the digital asset ecosystem did not have notable effects on the traditional financial system because the digital assets ecosystem does not provide significant financial services and its interconnections with the broader financial system are limited.” However, the report noted that as digital assets grow, so too will the risks to financial stability, and cited the October FSOC Report on Digital Asset Financial Stability Risks and Regulation in addressing those risks and regulatory gaps.
The Report identified several near-term risks that “could be amplified” through the four financial vulnerabilities, including high inflation, geopolitical risks (noting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), market fragilities, and possible shocks caused by a cyber event.
“Climate change is an emerging threat to the financial stability of the United States.” So begins a recently issued Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) Report, identifying climate change as a financial risk and threat to U.S. financial stability and highlighting a need for coordinated, stable, and clearly communicated policy objectives and actions in order to avoid a disorderly transition to a net-zero economy.
The FSOC’s members are the top regulators of the financial system in the United States, including the heads of the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Their charge is to identify risks facing the country’s financial system and respond to them. This new Report supports steps being taken by various financial regulators in the U.S.
The Report suggests four steps necessary to facilitate an orderly transition to a net-zero economy.
Regulators must develop and use better tools to help policymakers. “Council members recognize that the need for better data and tools cannot justify inaction, as climate-related financial risks will become more acute if not addressed promptly.” The FSOC Report highlights the tool of scenario analysis, “a forward-looking projection of risk outcomes that provides a structured approach for considering potential future risks associated with climate change.” The FSOC recommends the use of sector- and economy-wide scenario analysis as particularly important because of the interrelated and unpredictable development of climate impacts and technologies necessary to address them. Each of these technologies may have an unexpected impact on a part of the economy.
Climate-related financial risk data and methodologies for filling gaps must be addressed. The FSOC Report noted that its members lacked the ability to effectively access and use data that may be present in the financial system. The FSOC Report also noted potential risks to lenders, insurers, infrastructure, and fund managers caused by physical and transitional risks of climate change and the need to develop tools to better understand those risks.
As has been highlighted by the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) movement, disclosure by companies of their climate-related risks is a key piece of data not only for investors but also for regulators and policymakers. Disclosure regimes that promote comparable, consistent, or decision-useful data and impacts of climate change are necessary, according to the Report, and also regimes that cover both public and private entities. The Report highlights various ongoing discussions on this topic, including possible regulations by the SEC.
To assess and mitigate climate-related risks on the financial system, methods of analyzing the interrelated aspects of climate change are necessary. The Report details the developing thoughts around scenario analysis as a tool to help predict the many aspects of climate change on the financial system but notes that clearly defined objectives and planning are essential for decision-useful analysis.
The Regulatory Relief to Support Economic Recovery Order calls on agencies across the federal government to use emergency authorities provided under the Administrative Procedures Act to swiftly rescind, modify, waive or provide exemptions from regulations and other requirements that inhibit job creation and economic growth. It further calls on agencies to consider permanently rescinding or modifying any regulations that were temporarily halted in response to COVID-19. The Order notes that it does not change agencies’ statutory obligations.
The Order also directs enforcement discretion by agencies for businesses that make good-faith attempts to follow agency guidance and regulations during the pandemic. It establishes the following “principles of fairness” that are to be followed in enforcement and adjudication:
The Government should bear the burden of proving an alleged violation of law; the subject of enforcement should not bear the burden of proving compliance.
Administrative enforcement should be prompt and fair.
Administrative adjudicators should be independent of enforcement staff.
Consistent with any executive branch confidentiality interests, the Government should provide favorable relevant evidence in possession of the agency to the subject of an administrative enforcement action.
All rules of evidence and procedure should be public, clear, and effective.
Penalties should be proportionate, transparent, and imposed in adherence to consistent standards and only as authorized by law.
Administrative enforcement should be free of improper Government coercion.
Liability should be imposed only for violations of statutes or duly issued regulations, after notice and an opportunity to respond.
Administrative enforcement should be free of unfair surprise.
Agencies must be accountable for their administrative enforcement decisions.
Finally, the Order instructs agencies to provide pre-enforcement rulings, permitting businesses to ask an agency for a determination on whether some proposed conduct in the business’s response to COVID-19 is allowable.
IMPLICATIONS AND OUTLOOK
The Order is consistent with the longstanding stated desire by the Administration to reduce regulatory burdens. It has the potential to alter the regulatory landscape across a wide array of industries. The Order could impact virtually any regulation from the numerous government agencies that promulgate rules, including financial regulations, environmental protections, and agricultural production and distribution guidelines, among many others.
In addition to ordering the rescission or modification of current regulations, the White House is calling on agencies to speed up the rulemaking process, including moving proposed rulemakings to interim final rules with immediate effect. This will likely draw resistance and possibly litigation from organizations that have already opposed the Administration’s approach on regulatory reforms.
The Order’s provisions on pre-enforcement rulings supersedes the provisions contained in Section 6 of Executive Order 13892, which establishes principles for using guidance in civil administrative enforcement, in an effort to provide faster compliance feedback to companies looking to reopen so they can proceed with the confidence that doing so will not trigger violations of the governing laws or regulations.
The “principles of fairness” detailed above seek to provide another level of legal cover for regulated entities. However, the extent to which the Order would provide protection for businesses against pandemic-related liability would be limited. This has been a particularly challenging issue among lawmakers as the next legislative response package is developed. While Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has stated that liability protections for business must be included in the next relief bill, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) opposes such provisions.
Although it remains to be seen how agencies will respond to the Order, it is likely that they will look to the businesses and industries they regulate to assist them in identifying regulations that should be rescinded or modified.
The Federal Coronavirus Task Force issued a three-stage plan last week to reopen the economy, where authorities in each state – not the federal government – will decide when it is safe to reopen shops, schools, restaurants, movie theaters, sporting arenas and other facilities that were closed to minimize community spread of the deadly virus. Once phase one is adopted in certain states, businesses that reopen will need to be prepared to take certain precautions to meet their common law duty to provide and maintain reasonably safe premises.
Phase One
The first stage of the plan will affect certain segments of society and businesses differently. For example, schools and organized youth activities that are currently closed, such as day care, should remain closed. The guidance also says that bars should remain closed. However, larger venues such as movie theaters, churches, ballparks and arenas may open and operate but under strict distancing protocols. If possible, employers should follow recommendations from the federal guidance to have workers return to their jobs in phases.
Also, under phase one vulnerable individuals such as older people and those with underlying health conditions should continue to shelter in place. Individuals who do go out should avoid socializing in groups of more than 10 people in places that don’t provide for appropriate physical distancing. Trade shows and receptions, for example, are the types of events that should be avoided. Unnecessary travel also should be avoided.
Assuming the infection rate continues to drop, then the second phase will see schools, day care centers and bars reopening; crowds of up to 50 permitted; and vacation travel resuming. The final stage would permit the elderly and immunologically compromised to participate in social settings. There is no timeline prescribed, however, for any of these phases.
Precautionary Basics
Once businesses are reopened during phase one, there are several common sense and intuitive safety practices that business owners/operators must absolutely ensure are in place to meet their common law duty to provide a reasonably safe environment for those present on their premises.
The guidelines issued by the CDC are the core protocols that form the baseline for minimal safety precautions: persistent hand washing, use of masks/gloves and strict social distancing.
Additional Measures
Given the highly infectious nature of the virus, the fact that it is capable of being transmitted by asymptomatic people who are nonetheless infected, and the apparent viability of transmission through recirculated air or via HVAC systems without negative pressure (per a recent report from China about transmission from one restaurant customer to several others via the air circulation system), there is nothing that reasonably can be adopted that will effectively and readily ensure that a business is completely free of someone who is infected and capable of spreading the virus.
As such, additional measures are advisable beyond the CDC protocols, such as robust cleaning/hygienic regimens/complimentary wipes and hand sanitizer for common areas, buttons and handles; and the necessary protections for employees who interact with the public (e.g., shielding and protective gear for checkout clerks at the supermarket or lobby desk/check-in personnel in hotels and office buildings). In addition, it would not be unreasonable or unduly intrusive to check the temperatures (via no-touch infrared devices) of those entering the premises. In the absence of available portable, instant and unobtrusive virus testing methods, temperature readings are the most practical and reasonable precautionary measure beyond the CDC baseline deterrents.
Conscientious and infallible implementation of maintenance, housekeeping and hygiene protocols for the commercial, hospitality, retail and restaurant industries also will be critical to mitigate potential liability claims for negligently failing to provide an environment reasonably safe from the spread of coronavirus.
Advisability of Warnings
Aside from conspicuously publicizing – via posted signage or announcements – the CDC guidelines relating to persistent hand washing, use of masks/gloves and strict social distancing, the need to warn of the potential for – or a history of – infections generally is not considered to be necessary or essential unless there is an imminent threat of a specific foreseeable harm.
Unless there is a specific condition leading to a cluster of infections within a particular property (unlikely given the ubiquity of the disease and community spread, but the reporting would be to the CDC or local health authorities in such an instance), or an isolated circumstance that can be identified to be the source of likely infections to others who proximately were exposed, there is no need or obligation under existing law or regulatory guidelines to report generally that someone who tested positive for the virus may have been on a particular property.
Moreover, unless the business is an employer who administers a self-funded health plan (who are thus charged with the duty to maintain “protected health information”), businesses that are not health providers are not subject to HIPAA; as such, concerns about HIPAA violations are misplaced to the extent that the identity of someone who is infected is somehow disclosed or otherwise required to be disseminated by a business not otherwise charged with the duty to maintain “protected health information.”
A Coordinated Approach
While the CDC’s guidelines are important, they are not exclusive. Businesses planning to reopen also should consider regulations and guidelines from a number of other sources, including OSHA and state and local departments of public health.
The $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill enacted by Congress on March 27 provides immediate cash assistance to small businesses that keep their employees or recall employees they have furloughed or laid off due to financial hardships related to COVID-19. The money is available through a Small Business Administration (SBA) loan program that allows businesses to keep the loan proceeds as a grant for eligible expenses, including payroll, for the period between February 15 and June 30, 2020.
This program, called the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), is a powerful tool for businesses with fewer than 500 employees to get immediate assistance with meeting operating expenses, with the prospect of not having to repay some or all of the loan. It’s also available for nonprofits.
Here are the highlights of the program:
Maximum Loan Amount
The PPP raises the maximum amount for an SBA loan by 2.5x the average total monthly payroll cost, or up to $10 million. The interest rate may not exceed 4%.
Qualified Costs
Payroll costs
Continuation of health care benefits
Employee compensation (for those making less than $100,000)
Mortgage interest obligations
Rent on any lease in force prior to February 15, 2020
Utilities
Interest on debt incurred before the covered period
Businesses Eligible to Obtain These Loans
Businesses with fewer than 500 employees.
Small businesses as defined by the Small Business Administration (SBA) Size Standards at 13 C.F.R. 121.201.
501(c)(3) nonprofits, 501(c)(19) veteran’s organization, and Tribal business concern described in section 31(b)(2)(C) of the Small Business Act with not more than 500 employees.
Hotels, motels, restaurants, and franchises with fewer than 500 employees at each physical location without regard to affiliation under 13 C.F.R. 121.103.
Businesses that receive financial assistance from Small Business Investment Act Companies licensed under the Small Business Investment Act of 1958 without regard to affiliation under 13 C.F.R. 121.10.
Sole proprietors and independent contractors.
Loan Forgiveness
All or a portion of the loan may be forgivable, and debt service payments may be deferred for up to one year. The amount forgiven will be reduced proportionally by any reduction in employees retained compared to the prior year and reduced by the reduction in pay of any employee beyond 25% of their prior year compensation. To encourage employers to rehire any employees who have already been laid off due to the COVID-19 crisis, borrowers that rehire workers previously laid off will not be penalized for having a reduced payroll at the beginning of the period.
Application Process
Current lenders through the Small Business Administration 7(a) are authorized to make determinations on borrower eligibility and creditworthiness without going through the SBA. These lenders can be found here. For eligibility purposes, lenders will not be determining eligibility based on repayment ability, but rather whether the business was operational on February 15, 2020, and had employees for whom it paid salaries and payroll taxes, or a paid independent contractor.
Timeline
The SBA is required to issue implementing regulations within 15 days, and the U.S. Department of Treasury will be approving new lenders.
Technological Revolutions are quiet and astonishing. Step by step new technological applications are pushing existing paradigms and changing the way business is transacted by consumers, companies and in society. In the past, electricity and printing had a revolutionary role in social development, shifting all sectors of life. These days, the Internet of Things (IoT) is pivotal in creating quick, profound and quiet transformations.
According to the Committee on Digital Economy Policy of Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation of OCED:
The Internet of Things (IoT) could soon be as commonplace as electricity in the everyday lives of people in OECD countries. As such, it will play a fundamental role in economic and social development in ways that would have been challenging to predict as recently as two or three decades ago[1].
In 2008-2009, according to Cisco IBSG – Internet Business Solutions, there were more connected objects, such as smartphones, tablets and computers, than the world’s population. Therefore, this period is considered the year that IoT was born[2]. In 2008, Rob Van Kranemburg published “The Internet of Things”, which addresses a new paradigm in which objects produce information.
Supporting CISCO’s statement, the chart below of Google Trends shows the period of time during which popularity in searches on Google increased. In the last 5 years, IoT has sharply rocketed as a very attractive subject in the general mind of the people on the internet[3]:
Interest Over Time (2004-2019) As Search Item
Digging deeper we can see that IoT popularity is not only relevant to internet users or to some futuristic curiosity on Google, it is a real and concrete “combination of network connectivity, widespread sensor placement, and sophisticated data analysis techniques” which enables“applications to aggregate and act on large amounts of data generated by IoT devices in homes, public spaces, industry and the natural world”[4].
The potential benefits of this kind of connectivity are immense: real-time monitoring and more accurate metrics, the ability to remotely control various actions, interconnectivity and automation, plus the ease of handling a variety of devices that can be centralized on just one smartphone. Nonetheless, this technological avalanche also brings risks and vulnerabilities to users, such as increased vigilance over our habits, exposure of our personal data, hacking vulnerabilities, global or cascading failures, among others.
In the last two years, a set of supporting policy actions have been adopted by the European Commission to accelerate the take-up of IoT and to unleash its potential in Europe for the benefit of European citizens and businesses[5]. These policy actions and statements are not only a guess or shallow forecast, they are a serious result of data and market analysis that came from several studies which found impressive numbers such as 11 billion connected ‘things’ in 2018[6]. This could be as many as 20 billion connections by 2020[7], about 6 billion of which will be in Europe[8]. Of these, 60-65% are consumer devices.
According to the Centre for the Promotion of Imports (CBI) more than 65% of businesses are expected to use IoT products by 2020, compared to 30% in 2017. Europe accounts for more than a third of global Industrial IoT investments by 2020. The market is expected to grow at an impressive average annual rate of 22%. Reaching a value of €287 billion in 2020, Industrial IoT is Europe’s largest IoT market[9].
Seizing the Benefits and Addressing the Challenges
The Centre for the Promotion of Imports (CBI), an Agency of the Netherland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and part of the development cooperation effort of the foreign relations of the Netherlands conducted research on the IoT in Europe in January 2019. It concluded:
The European market for Internet of Things (IoT) solutions is growing. Western and Northern Europe are especially promising. Both consumer and business IoT offer opportunities, but specialisation may give you a competitive advantage. The home, health and finance sectors are front runners. National and European initiatives are working to stimulate the roll-out of Industrial IoT solutions and lower barriers. The shortage of skilled specialists continues to drive outsourcing[10].
Apart from an advantageous and “smart” business opportunity, IoT can facilitate innovation in the private sector supporting a wide range of innovative businesses, not only raising the productivity level but increasing the accountability and responsiveness of companies and its employees, improving the client confidence.
Thus, IoT can work to facilitate Private Sector Innovation by so-called industrial Internet, Next Production Revolution (NPR)[11], autonomous machines and big data[12] and automotive industry[13]. On the other hand, innovative Public Sector Delivery with IoT applications could provide smart cities[14], smart governments, smart street lighting[15]and traffic flow optimization[16], innovation in healthcare practice and delivery[17]. IoT technologies are, therefore, expected to play a major role in improving the management of transport, energy use, water services, education, employment, health, crime prevention, by making society more efficient, innovative, safe, sustainable, and inclusive[18].
Regardless of all the benefits, there are many challenges and risks associated with IoT digital security, such as cyber attacks, digital incidents and privacy challenges. Furthermore, bad outcomes can happen causing physical consequences in case of the wrongdoing of autonomous vehicles, health care tools or industrial machines.
The Vision of IoT in 2020
First of all, the 2020 scenario might be approached by a combination of the Cloud and Big Data. Nowadays the hyperconnectivity[19] of society drives IoT to be “The Next Big Thing” in business. According to OECD this next big thing will be related to “a sophisticated industry ecosystem consisting of vendors (providing components), suppliers (creating solutions), service providers, and enterprise users in all sectors of the economy” that will be “measured in billions of Euro in Europe alone, and that will extend across the world too”[20].
Could expectations be too high? Maybe not, because of the following points: I) the centrality of IoT in the upcoming years is corroborated by the sheer number of connections that are expected to be in place by 2020; II) IoT ecosystem will have grown to encompass not only the traditional supply-side actors, but also a rising number of businesses and organizations serving and using IoT; III) hyper-connected society will be an established reality by 2020, as most of the “things” that can be connected, will be by then.
In 2018, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published a study considering initiatives on the future of production. Essentially, it gives an insight into: i) Solution-driven: technology can tackle and solve challenges that have previously been insurmountable; ii) Human-centric: technology can unlock human potential by unleashing creativity, innovation and productivity in new ways; iii) Sustainable: technology can promote sound production processes that minimize negative environmental impact, conserve energy and resources and enable carbon neutrality; iv) Inclusive: employees, companies and countries at different stages of development benefit from Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies and the transformation of production systems[21].
One of its conclusions is that in the coming years, the IoT market is expected to grow across Europe. Most of the front runners are Western European countries, which have traditionally invested more in IT. And together, six countries make up more than 75% of the European IoT market, this makes them especially promising target markets for 2020.
Chart 2. IoT Market Size in Europe
Further, apart from the geographic localization of the opportunities arising, to have a real and concrete overview it is important to be aware of the market size and 2020 forecast by sector. By 2020, industrial IoT is predicted to consist of:
60% cross-industry devices – used in multiple industries, mainly to save costs;
40% vertical-specific devices – used in a specific industry to improve efficiency/accuracy.
Industrial IoT also offers good opportunities, as the average spending per device is much higher in this sector. This makes total spending on consumer and industrial IoT about equal by 2020[22].
Chart 3: IoT Market Size Per Sector
Based on the US Dollar: Euro exchange rates in October 2018, the global average spending on IoT devices is expected to be:
€102 per consumer device;
€114 per cross-industry business device;
€239 per vertical-specific business device.
Finally, electronic sensors are now everywhere – in smartphones, cars, home electronic systems, healthcare devices, fitness monitors and in the workplace. It has been estimated that, by 2020, over 200 billion sensor devices will be inter-connected, creating a market size that, by 2025, will be between $2.7 trillion and $3 trillion a year[23].
At the same time, the market opportunity will bring regulatory challenges. The next section of this report will analyze by specific studies the impact of regulatory requirements on IoT devices and deployment.
[1] OCDE. Committee on Digital Economy Policy of Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation. The Internet of Things: Seizing the Benefits and Addressing the Challenges. Background Report for Ministerial Panel 2.2. English Version. 24 May 2016. P. 5. Available here.
[2] MANCINI, Monica. Internet das Coisas: História, Conceitos, Aplicações e Desafios. Available here.
[3] Interest over time. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term. The information is available here.
[4] Idem, p. 5.
[5] European Commission. Digital Single Market. Policies: Internet of Things. Available here.
[6] Gartner, Inc. Press Release. Gartner Says 8.4 Billion Connected “Things” Will Be in Use in 2017, Up 31 Percent From 2016. February 2017. Available here.
[7] Idem, Leading the IoT. Gartner Insights on How to Lead in a Connected World. 2017. P. 2.
[8] European Commission. Definition of a Research and Innovation Policy Leveraging Cloud Computing and IoT Combination. FINAL REPORT. A study prepared for the European Commission. DG Communications Networks, Content & Technology. Digital Agenda for Europe. Available here.
[9] Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Centre for the Promotion of Imports (CBI). January 2019. Available here.
[10] Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Centre for the Promotion of Imports (CBI). January 2019. Available here.
[11] (NPR) entails a confluence of technologies ranging from a variety of digital technologies (e.g. 3D printing, the Internet of Things [IoT] and advanced robotics) to new materials (e.g. bio- or nano-based) to new processes (e.g. data-driven production, artificial intelligence [AI] and synthetic biology). The Next Production Revolution. A Report to G20. OECD, 2017. Available here.
[12] Autonomous machines and the use of big data are increasingly present in agriculture. Robots can now sort plants based on optical recognition, harvest lettuce and recognise rotten apples. Idem, Ibidem.
[13] The automotive industry is one of the sectors most affected by interconnectivity and enhanced efficiency in both production and operation of vehicles. Idem, Ibidem.
[14] “Smart city plans explore the ability to process huge masses of data coming from devices such as video cameras, parking sensors and air-quality monitors to help local governments achieve goals in terms of increased public safety, improved environment and better quality of life. In: OCDE. Committee on Digital Economy Policy of Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation. The Internet of Things: Seizing the Benefits and Addressing the Challenges. Background Report for Ministerial Panel 2.2. English Version. 24 May 2016. P. 16.
[15]“Dublin (Ireland), Oslo (Norway) and Chattanooga, Tennessee in the United States have started to use smart street lighting systems.29 Often triggered by replacing municipal lighting with LED solutions to save on energy costs, smart street lighting can offer combined savings of up to USD 100 per streetlight per year”. Idem, Ibidem.
[16]“The SCOOT system developed by Transport for London uses data on road usage with real-time control of traffic lights in the city to deliver on average a 12% improvement in traffic flow. Other large cities, like Beijing, São Paulo, Toronto or Preston have introduced SCOOT”. Idem, Ibidem.
[17] “Smaller sensors, smartphone assisted readouts, big data analysis and continuous remote monitoring can enable new ways of managing care. Such a digital health feedback system includes wearable and that work together to gather information about medication-taking, activity and rest patterns. Idem. p.15.
[18] UN General Assembly, Report of the Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression, A/HRC/32/38 (2016), P.12.
[19] A term invented by Canadian social scientists Anabel Quan-Haase and Barry Wellman, it refers to the use of multiple means of communication, such as email, instant messaging, telephone, face-to-face contact and Web 2.0 information services.
[20] OCDE. Committee on Digital Economy Policy of Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation. The Internet of Things: Seizing the Benefits and Addressing the Challenges. Background Report for Ministerial Panel 2.2. English Version. 24 May 2016. P. 24.
[21] World Economic Forum. Insight Report. Readiness for the Future of Production. Report 2018. Available here.
[22] Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Centre for the Promotion of Imports (CBI). January 2019. Available here.
[23] Russo et al. Exploring regulations and scope of the Internet of Things in contemporary companies: a first literature analysis. Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 2015, P. 5.
It is one of the ironies of history that the EU as it is today, starting with the single market, was largely made in Britain, the achievement, above all, of former prime minister Margaret Thatcher and her right-hand man in Brussels, the then Commissioner (Lord) Arthur Cockfield. The single market has long been viewed by observers in countries with less of a free market tradition as a typically British liberal invention. And yet it is this market, as well as the EU itself, that another Conservative government is now seeking to leave.
Britain has also left its stamp on key EU initiatives from regional policy to development assistance and fisheries. The EU’s interest in a common foreign and security policy originally stemmed from Britain. The EU’s comparatively transparent and accountable administrative rules date from the reforms introduced by former British Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock when he was Vice-President of the European Commission from 1999 to 2004. Thus, representatives of Britain’s two major parties have helped to make the EU what it is today.
If British prime ministers had explained to public opinion earlier the extent of their country’s influence on the EU, something that other Europeans never doubted, the referendum of 23 June 2016 might never have occurred.
A “Smooth and Sensible” Brexit
Be that as it may, Europeans on both sides of the English Channel are now grappling with the consequences of that vote. If reason and economic interest prevail, a “smooth and sensible” Brexit, as evoked by the British prime minister in Florence in September, might yet emerge.
This would involve a broad agreement, in 2017, on the principal aspects of the divorce settlement. This concerns mainly Britain’s financial commitments to the EU, the residence, professional and health rights of citizens living on both sides of the Channel after Brexit, and the need to maintain the Common Travel Area between Britain and Ireland and to avoid a hard border across the island of Ireland after Brexit. While Brussels, London and Dublin have affirmed their intention of achieving these goals, there are many practical and political issues to resolve.
If sufficient confidence and trust between EU and UK negotiators is established, it should also be possible to agree to the general terms of a future political and economic agreement between London and Brussels by the end of the year and to broach the question of transitional arrangements to smooth the way for government and business. The British government wishes to ensure that business need adjust to Brexit only once, hence the need for a smooth transition to a well-defined future relationship.
If good progress is made next year, the separation agreement and transitional arrangements could be drawn up by October 2018, allowing enough time for approval by EU and British institutions ahead of Britain’s exit from the EU at midnight between 29 and 30 October 2019. Little, except Britain’s lost vote in EU institutions, would then change for the next two to three years, as the UK continued to make payments to the EU budget, respect judgements of the European Court of Justice and accept the free movement of labour.
The breathing space would be used to negotiate, sign and ratify a two-part long-term agreement. The first part would cover trade and economic issues; it could take effect provisionally relatively quickly after agreement had been reached. The second part, though, would be a wide-ranging political agreement, involving security and even aspects of defence. Both sides have an interest in cooperation on armaments production and unconventional forms of conflict, as well as police and judicial affairs. This would involve the member states’ legal responsibilities and require ratification by all twenty-eight countries concerned. It might not come into effect before the mid-late 2020s.
This relatively benign sequence of events assumes that the British government is unified behind its negotiator, David Davies, and that the political situation in Britain and the EU remains generally stable. It also assumes that the EU can move beyond its rigid two-stage sequencing of the negotiations.
However, there may well be political upsets, involving a leadership competition in the Conservative Party and, perhaps, an early general election. The opposition Labour Party may come to power bringing a change in priorities but also differences of opinion in its own ranks. The British economy will be damaged by Brexit, according to leading economists, and public opinion is likely to react when this is widely felt.[1]Until now, the main impact has been a decline in sterling and rising inflation, raising the prospect of higher interest rates.
The “Cliff Edge” Scenario
Such uncertainties, as well as the divergent political agendas of London and Brussels, may make the smooth and sensible Brexit impossible to achieve during the limited time available. This opens the way to a second scenario, widely described in Britain as the cliff edge. Under this hypothesis, the December 2017 goal for achieving a breakthrough in the separation talks is missed. This further postpones discussion of transitional arrangements and a future long-term agreement.
Negotiations continue fitfully during 2018 but the two sides are too far apart to reach agreement by October 2018, which the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has designated as the effective deadline. If October passes without an overall agreement, it will probably be too late to secure the agreement of the European Parliament before 29 March 2019, when the two-year negotiating period initiated by the British government’s notification of withdrawal expires. Nonetheless, negotiations might well go down to the wire.
Unless all twenty-eight countries “stop the clock” at midnight, an old Brussels ruse, the UK would then leave the EU without an agreement. Business leaders have warned of the chaos this will bring. There will be an unmanageable fivefold increase in work at British, Irish and mainland European ports checking consignments, the suspension of air travel between the UK and the EU, pending the conclusion of a new air transport agreement, and other major disruptions.
Health, safety, veterinary and phytosanitary inspections, as well as the assessment of customs duties, would lead to long queues of lorries at ports on both sides of the channel. Neither side can build the necessary infrastructure and linked IT systems or recruit sufficient qualified staff in time to cope with dramatically increased requirements after a hard Brexit. Supply chains would be disrupted and many foreign-owned companies, which had not already relocated to remaining EU countries, would seek to do so rapidly.
The political and economic damage of going over the cliff edge would last for years and embitter the UK’s relations with the EU and third countries. Many would question the value of Britain’s WTO commitments in the absence of appropriate trading arrangements between Britain and the EU.
This then is a sketch of the cliff edge. Those who admire Britain for its pragmatism, fairness and common sense find it hard to believe that such a scenario might become reality. Surely, they say, Britain and the EU are involved in preliminary skirmishing of the type that precedes any negotiation. They are sure to come to their senses as the decisive deadlines approach. Nothing is less than certain.
A Tale of “Downside” Risks
The outcome may well diverge from either the optimistic or the pessimistic scenarios delineated above. However, the risks are mainly “downside” as the economists put it. British negotiators have not yet grasped the fundamentally asymmetric nature of negotiations between twenty-seven countries backed by European institutions on the one side and a single country seeking to leave the club on the other. It would be better for government, business and the public, if this reality were more widely recognized, leading to realistic negotiating targets. Indeed, Brexit is not really a negotiation at all in the usual sense. It is rather an effort by the leaving country to secure some exceptions from the club’s rules at the time of its departure. This is much akin to the efforts of a candidate (joining) country to achieve some, temporary, transitional exceptions to the EU’s rules.
The Brexit talks are essentially an exercise in damage limitation, mainly through transitional arrangements. When the divorce and transitional arrangements have been agreed, Britain and the EU can concentrate on negotiating a long-term partnership which will be in their mutual interest.
On Friday, April 14, the U.S. Department of Treasury published a widely anticipated semi-annual report detailing the foreign exchange practices of America’s major trading partners. Although he regularly called for China to be labeled as a “currency manipulator” as a candidate, President Donald J. Trump and his administration declined to use the occasion of this report to do so. Mr. Trump previewed this decision days earlier in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, reflecting the consensus among economists that the Chinese “are not currency manipulators.” While, according to many economists, the Chinese government did keep the value of the Renminbi (“RMB”; also known as the “Chinese yuan”) at an artificially low level for many years, Chinese policymakers have been hard at work trying to prop up the currency since 2014 due, in part, to a strengthening U.S. dollar and surging capital outflows.
The decision not to label China as a currency manipulator comes on the heels of the first in-person meeting between Mr. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. On April 6 and 7, Mr. Trump hosted Mr. Xi at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida for a two-day summit, an important weather vane for near-term relations between the United States and China. Despite concerns that strategic differences over thorny issues such as North Korea and the South China Sea or harsh rhetoric regarding U.S.-China trade relations from Mr. Trump in advance of the meeting might sour the mood, both sides came out of the meetings with a buoyant step. The two sides agreed to implement a new, comprehensive framework for bilateral negotiations that will shape U.S.-China engagement in the years to come. Further, U.S. and Chinese officials announced a plan to reach agreement, within 100 days, on steps that can be taken to address trade-related frictions between the two countries.
For much of the Obama presidency, bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and China were centered around two main events: the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (“S&ED”) and the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (“JCCT”). During this first face-to-face encounter, Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi agreed to a new framework for high-level negotiations called the “U.S.-China Comprehensive Dialogue,” which is to cover four main tracks: diplomacy and security, economics, law enforcement and cybersecurity, and society and culture. Few details have been released as to how the new dialogue will work in practice, and which of the components of the S&ED and JCCT might be preserved in this new framework.
The 100-day plan for trade negotiations is aimed at addressing trade frictions, particularly with regard to increasing U.S. exports and reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China. Few details about what the 100-day plan will entail have been released, and many details are yet to be negotiated. However, it appears that these negotiations will focus on securing Chinese commitments on a range of U.S. exports including beef (banned in China since 2003) and other agricultural products, steel, oil, and gas. Additionally, the Chinese might provide greater market access for U.S. investments in the financial sector—e.g., in securities and insurance. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin explained during a press briefing that there was a “very wide range of products that we discussed.” According to some reports, at least some Chinese commitments proposed at this early stage may have originally been intended for offer in the context of the bilateral investment treaty negotiations between the U.S. and China, the prospects for which are now less certain.
The current dynamics present significant opportunities for individual businesses and industry groups. Businesses seeking access to the Chinese market for exports or investment should consider engaging with U.S. policymakers to leverage the situation and make a case for addressing their specific needs during the current round of negotiations. Even if the 100-day plan does not bring about the kind of comprehensive economic benefits potentially possible under a bilateral investment treaty, companies with interests in China should see this as an opportunity to seek relief in a Chinese business environment that, according to over 80% of member companies responding to an AmCham China survey, has become less friendly to foreign business than in the past.
Blocked streets, noisy construction and unwelcome trash can be just a few of the inconveniences that come along with a neighbor’s new home construction or home remodeling. However, a report released in early May by the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) confirms that for the overall good of the nation’s economy, some of these inconveniences may be worth the hassle.
Residential home building is back, and it’s helping the economy in a big way
The NAHB’s report calculated the approximate number of jobs that are created and how much tax revenue is generated relative to the different types of residential construction projects. It found that the construction of an average single-family home creates approximately 2.97 jobs and generates approximately $111,000 in taxes per home. Not having quite as significant of an impact, but still highly beneficial to the economy, are rental apartment construction projects, which create roughly 1.13 jobs per unit and generate approximately $42,000 in taxes per unit. In generating these statistics, the NAHB defined a “job” as work that can keep one worker employed for an entire year based on an average number of hours worked per week in the homebuilding industry.
A robust homebuilding market has wide-reaching benefits. In addition to the workers in a variety of construction and remodeling industries, including lumber, concrete and HVAC, other beneficiaries include workers that transport homebuilding materials and products, as well as those in the service sectors, such as architects, engineers, real estate agents, lawyers and accountants.
This latest report is the first update to the NAHB’s National Impact of Home Building estimates since 2008. Interestingly, the statistics related to tax revenue and jobs-per-housing-unit are roughly equal to what they were in the 2008 report, but the NAHB article indicates that that is likely due to inflation, changes in housing preferences and the use of somewhat revised metrics in determining these estimates.
A robust homebuilding market has wide-reaching benefits. In addition to the workers in a variety of construction and remodeling industries, including lumber, concrete and HVAC, other beneficiaries include workers that transport homebuilding materials and products, as well as those in the service sectors, such as architects, engineers, real estate agents, lawyers and accountants.