In the days following the November elections, U.S. President-elect Donald J. Trump promised that his Financial Services Policy Implementation team would be working to “dismantle” the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (“Dodd-Frank”). However, a more recent account in the Wall Street Journal reported Mr. Trump’s transition team as tempering his promise in favor of rescinding or scaling back the individual provisions Republicans find most objectionable.
In light of the current political and macro-economic environment, here are six reasons why a wholesale repeal of Dodd-Frank is unlikely to occur:
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Congressional Resistance – A wholesale repeal of Dodd-Frank would have to be effectuated through congressional action and would likely face a democratic filibuster. This would require opponents of Dodd-Frank to muster a 60-vote block in the Senate in order to advance the proposal. Legislative horse-trading to achieve specific objectives that are key to the Republican majority may ultimately prove to be more strategically advantageous.
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Public Perception – Actions of the new administration which could be perceived as advocating for easing the burden on the financial services industry may alienate the middle-class constituency who were significantly impacted by the great recession and who ultimately propelled Mr. Trump to the Presidency.
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Balance of Cost – Following massive investments in infrastructure and processes, the industry may perceive the costs of undoing the compliance programs put in place subsequent to Dodd-Frank as outweighing the benefits to be derived from decreased regulation.
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Accepted Expectations – Counterparties have come to accept the safeguards and reporting requirements put in place by Dodd-Frank as constituting baseline expectations in business transactions. A repeal of Dodd-Frank would leave industry participants to reconstruct by contract what may have been previously mandated under law.
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International Developments – In the wake of the Brexit vote, international financial organizations may be evaluating the relocation of their operational centers to locations in the U.S. The possibility of significant financial regulatory overhauls and the accompanying specter of an unknown business environment may dissuade consideration of the U.S. by such organizations.
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Absence of a Perceptible Problem – Dodd-Frank was passed on July 21, 2010 with the wake of the great recession providing momentum and popular support for its enactment. Conversely, there is no corresponding economic situation presently existing that critics can point to for its repeal. The DJIA is up approximately 90% since July 2010. The real estate market has remained strong and, even with the recent increase by the Fed, interest rates remain low, allowing consumers access to both homeownership and financing on attractive terms.
In addition to the issues identified above, the incoming Presidential administration and congressional delegation may face additional hurdles in advancing comprehensive legislative initiatives to pare back Dodd-Frank. As the post-election environment cools and the country marches towards inauguration day, the financial services industry can only hope that clarity on the direction of the U.S. regulatory environment begins to emerge.
